Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 251042
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
543 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front, with weak low pressure moving along it, will try
to lift north of the forecast area today before stalling just
south of the area. Expect increased chances for light rain or
drizzle along with areas of fog and sea fog near the coast.
Intensifying low pressure system will move across the area on
Wednesday providing a good chance of soaking rain. High pressure
and a drying trend will encompass the Carolinas late next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Approaching warm front will bring increasingly overcast skies
today with chances for rainfall steadily increasing through the
morning and afternoon hours. Some downpours could bring moderate
to heavy rain rates at times, especially in the late morning to
early afternoon hours today. The warm front lifts to the north
of the region by Monday evening for a brief break in rainfall,
but another round is expected Tuesday as a cold front approaches
from the west.

Rainfall potential is a bit more uncertain for Tuesday, but
indications from the latest model runs indicate some instability
sufficient for some thunderstorm activity and plenty of
moisture in a warm atmosphere. The mitigating factor is if the
front stalls just to the northwest of the forecast area, which
some models indicate may happen ahead of another system about to
emerge from the Gulf of Mexico. Should this happen, the
forecast will trend drier with little to no thunderstorm
activity.

Confidence is higher in the warm up ahead for the region. Highs
today will reach anywhere from the upper 50s to low 60s in NC
and the low to upper 60s in SC. Lows tonight will reach the mid
50s followed by widespread highs for Tuesday in the low to mid
70s. Normal highs across the region for this time of year are in
the mid to upper 50s, while normal lows are in the mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front moves south of the area on Tuesday night, but clouds
and late arrival of the cooler air will keep low temperatures
in the low to mid 50s. This cold front will stall south of the
area and serve as the initiation for low pressure to develop
over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Expect showers to develop
ahead of the broad low during the day on Wednesday as the low
rides along the northward moving boundary. Low begins to
approach the Carolina coast during the afternoon with rainfall
increasing in coverage and intensity. As the low pushes off of
the southeastern NC coastline Wednesday night, the system will
merge with favorable jet dynamics and an associated upper low
and quickly deepen. This could bring us some brief impacts from
elevated winds as the system accelerates off to the northeast
late Wednesday night. With the system trending further south in
recent models runs, most of the area should see a better chance
of locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
evening especially.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold advection on the NW side of the low will likely keep
temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s for Thursday as
showers end early Thursday morning. Cold advection continues on
Friday as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will
move overhead or just to the east on Saturday. Temperatures
should remain slightly below average for the early portion of
next weekend as a result. The next system will begin to affect
the area late next weekend with warm air and rain chances
returning by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ceilings will deteriorate to IFR later today as a warm front moves
into the region. Winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon
with the warm air advection. IFR ceilings are expected tonight, with
pockets of MVFR. Any precipitation will move north of the region
this evening.

Extended Outlook...Low ceilings/visibility to continue into
early Tuesday with a brief VFR break into Thursday evening.
Low ceilings to return late Tuesday through early Thursday.
Clearing and VFR likely Thursday into Saturday. Flight
restrictions possibly return Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tuesday... A warm front will advance over the
waters today that will bring potentially dense sea fog with
visibility around 2 NM or less at times. The front will also
bring mainly southwest flow for the next 36 hours with speeds
around 10 kts today increasing tonight through Tuesday between
15 and 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts beyond 15 NM. Seas 2 to 3
feet today from the south at 6 seconds increasing tonight
through Tuesday between 3 to 5 feet from the south around 8
seconds with 6 footers possible out beyond 15 NM. Conditions may
exist into Tuesday beyond 15 NM that may be hazardous to
smaller watercraft and inexperienced mariners.

Tuesday Night through Friday... Small Craft conditions should
be coming to an end on Tuesday night as the front pushes
southward into southern SC, bringing winds generally out of the
W or NW around 10- 15 knots. On Wednesday, low pressure over the
Gulf Coast will develop along the previous frontal boundary and
track toward the southeastern NC coastline. Will see winds
begin to slowly increase and back throughout the day, becoming
easterly on Wednesday afternoon and NW on Wednesday evening as
the center of the low stays just south of the area. Once the low
moves off of the southeast NC coastline Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, the system will merge with an upper low and
begin to deepen quickly. Winds become NW on the lee side of the
low, increasing to 25-30 knots. Wind profiles show deep mixing
and a uniform profile in the boundary layer indicating good
potential for mixing. Current gusts are forecast 30- 35 knots,
and the area could see widespread Gale conditions on Thursday
afternoon. Seas increase to near 5-7 feet, remaining 4-6 feet
through Thursday and Thursday night. Conditions slowly improve
as the low moves off to the NE Thursday night, but Small Craft
conditions may continue through early Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/21

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion