Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 231954
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers late tomorrow
night and Sunday. Shower chances diminish next week with above-normal
temperatures and muggy conditions continuing. The next cold front
will approach the area late next week and bring cooler and drier
weather by next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure stretching from the Gulf of
ME down through the DELMARVA and into the Carolinas. Little in the
way of a pattern change through Sat, with the local area still under
the influence of high pressure and moisture confined to under 800
mb. This combined with a lack of forcing for ascent will mean
continued dry conditions, with any low-end PoPs (20%) confined to
the marine area. Any precip will be light. Fog again expected
tonight over the area due to light winds and the low-level moisture
in place. Chances for rain increase a bit Sat night (20-40% PoPs)
ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough approaching the area, but
forcing isn`t particularly strong enough at this point to warrant
higher PoPs. Will reevaluate with future updates. Temps still
slightly above normal...highs in the low 80s Sat with lows tonight
and Sat night in the low/mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface trough and associated cold front will dive southward
into northern NC on Sunday as high pressure builds over the NE US.
Portions of the area will see isolated and scattered showers with
some lingering instability south of US-74 leading to a slight chance
of an embedded thunderstorm. Showers will push offshore with the
weak frontal boundary overnight. NE winds will increase as high
pressure to the NE builds southward and could lead to some areas of
stratus on Monday morning. Not much of an air mass change on Monday
with deep-layer mid and upper-level flow remaining mostly zonal and
upper-level high pressure off of the east coast of FL. Temperatures
are likely to remain above average with some areas holding in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The dominating high pressure will at least
keep showers at bay on Monday and Monday night despite scattered
upper-level cloudiness.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue to suppress shower activity through
Wednesday night as mid-level flow out of the SW keeps humidity
elevated and temperatures above normal. On Thursday, models show a
disturbance over the southern or southeastern US bringing an
increase in southerly moisture ahead of an approaching cold front.
As the low pushes a warm front north of the area, unsettled weather
will remain likely through Friday morning. Uncertainty remains high
given the proximity of this disturbance. Despite the rain chances,
we are likely to see much drier and cooler weather building into the
eastern half of the CONUS on Friday into the weekend behind a
stronger cold front. This should bring temperatures a little closer
to normal next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Mainly clear
skies, light winds, and plenty of moisture will likely create
visibility problems late tonight after 08Z. MVFR conditions
along the coast could become IFR although probabilities are
still less than 50%. Inland at the FLO and LBT airports
probabilities are higher than IFR conditions will develop,
likely persisting through 13Z Saturday before improving.
Extended Outlook...Localized IFR conditions may develop late
Saturday night into Sunday morning in ground fog. A chance for
MVFR showers and isolated tstorms exists Sunday as a front
slowly pushes through. Mainly VFR Mon through Tue.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday Night... Based on latest buoy reports and
expected trends, decided to cancel the Small Craft Advisory.
Expect 3-5 ft seas tonight, decreasing to 2-4 ft Sat and Sat
night. This all still due to persistent 13-14 second E swell
from Hurricane Epsilon passing E of Bermuda. Winds remain fairly
light (under 10 kt) through the period, with a weak seabreeze
expected Sat aftn.
Sunday through Wednesday... Diminishing swell from Epsilon by
Sunday and NE winds around 10 to 15 knots will lead to seas
falling to 2-4 feet. High pressure will build over the NE US
Sunday night and Monday and keep northeasterly flow over the
coastal waters through Tuesday as seas continue to decrease to
2-3 feet. High pressure will keep shower chances low through
Wednesday. On Tuesday, high pressure over our area will weaken
and re-develop offshore. Will see NE winds become southerly by
Tuesday evening. Southerly winds continue on Wednesday and
increase throughout the day as a cold front and surface
disturbance approaches from the SW.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
108-110.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...MAS/21