Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KILM 151632
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1232 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional shower and thunderstorm activity will prevail
through the weekend, as several boundaries interact along with a
humid and unstable air mass in place. Slightly drier air is
expected to move in Sunday night and Monday, before unsettled
weather returns by mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track. Made minor adjustment to cloud cover and pops
but overall expect plenty of clouds today with intermittent
showers and storms. Deep SW winds will guide all showers and
storms off to the NE. Temps should reach between 85 and 90 most
places.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active weather over the next 36 hours with showers and
thunderstorms along a low pressure system and a series of
frontal boundaries near the area. Model atmospheric profiles
indicate a very moist environment (sounding climatology of
precipitable water above the 90th percentile) and moderately
unstable air mass (MLCAPE values between 1000 and 2000 J/KG)
capable of producing thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and some
gusty winds. Main concerns would be ponding of water on
roadways, as well as urban and small stream flooding of poor
drainage and low lying areas. Rain amounts will be highly
dependent on where individual thunderstorms track, but many
locations will likely see at least 0.50" over the next 36 hours
with chances of receiving between 1 and 2 inches with locally
higher amounts possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Seasonably nice weather in store for the short term period.
Surface front will be exiting the area Sunday night, with
decreasing from west to east after sunset. Dry air moves in
behind the front as low level northerly flow develops. Have
lowered pops some for Monday into the slight chance range, as
any convection that manages to develop should remain isolated.
With light winds and high temps in the mid to upper 80s range,
expecting a nice day Monday. Lows around 70 Sunday and Monday
nights, with some spots inland possibly reaching upper 60s
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather starts to creep back into the forecast on
Tuesday. Mid level moisture begins moving back in as deep south-
southwest flow develops over the area late Tuesday through end
of the week. Combination of weak surface boundary in the
vicinity and sea afternoon sea breeze, widely scattered storms
possible Tuesday afternoon. Late Tuesday, an upper level trough
will be digging into the lower MS Valley before setting up
southwest of our area Wednesday through Friday. With upper ridge
situated to the southeast, this will allow a few rounds of
impulses to move across the southeast and keep high chance pops
in the forecast each day for the back half of the week, with
greatest chances inland and to the south. Have continued to keep
pops lower than guidance, with slight trend upwards. Temps near
normal for long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
With PWATS over two inches, along with a low LFC, convection could
fire at just about any time, best chance of course will be this
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall, along with dangerous
cloud to ground lightning are a good bet with brief gusty winds in
the storms.

Extended Outlook...Scattered to numerous showers and tstorms
expected this weekend. Drier air may work its way briefly across
the area late Sun into early next week with less thunderstorm
activity and coverage possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday..

Total seas between 2 and 3 feet for the next 36 hours -
increasing up to 3 to 5 feet beyond 15 NM into Sunday. Wind
waves out of the southwest at 4 to 6 seconds with southeast
swell between 8 and 10 seconds with southwest winds between 10
and 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times. Inexperienced
mariners or those with smaller vessels may encounter periodic
hazardous conditions if venturing out beyond 15 NM through
Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Night through Wednesday..

SW winds around 10 kts Sunday night ahead of approaching front
will veer to northerly around 10 kts by Monday morning as front
moves to the east. Variable winds around 5 kts Monday evening
through Tuesday as pressure gradient relaxes. SSE flow 5-10 kts
sets up Tuesday night through Wednesday as high pressure
strengthens offshore. 3-4 ft seas Sunday night will be on the
decline, with seas around 2-3 ft forecasted for Monday and
holding steady through Wednesday. Seas combination of weakening
S wind wave and a 1-3 ft SE swell, with weak SE swell from TS
Josephine mixed in Tuesday into Wednesday. Thunderstorm coverage
will be decreasing Sunday night, with slight chance Monday and
Monday night over coastal waters before storm chances increase
again late Tuesday through end of the week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MCK
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...43
MARINE...MCK/VAO

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion