Area NWS Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS62 KILM 251042 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 543 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front, with weak low pressure moving along it, will try to lift north of the forecast area today before stalling just south of the area. Expect increased chances for light rain or drizzle along with areas of fog and sea fog near the coast. Intensifying low pressure system will move across the area on Wednesday providing a good chance of soaking rain. High pressure and a drying trend will encompass the Carolinas late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Approaching warm front will bring increasingly overcast skies today with chances for rainfall steadily increasing through the morning and afternoon hours. Some downpours could bring moderate to heavy rain rates at times, especially in the late morning to early afternoon hours today. The warm front lifts to the north of the region by Monday evening for a brief break in rainfall, but another round is expected Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Rainfall potential is a bit more uncertain for Tuesday, but indications from the latest model runs indicate some instability sufficient for some thunderstorm activity and plenty of moisture in a warm atmosphere. The mitigating factor is if the front stalls just to the northwest of the forecast area, which some models indicate may happen ahead of another system about to emerge from the Gulf of Mexico. Should this happen, the forecast will trend drier with little to no thunderstorm activity. Confidence is higher in the warm up ahead for the region. Highs today will reach anywhere from the upper 50s to low 60s in NC and the low to upper 60s in SC. Lows tonight will reach the mid 50s followed by widespread highs for Tuesday in the low to mid 70s. Normal highs across the region for this time of year are in the mid to upper 50s, while normal lows are in the mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front moves south of the area on Tuesday night, but clouds and late arrival of the cooler air will keep low temperatures in the low to mid 50s. This cold front will stall south of the area and serve as the initiation for low pressure to develop over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Expect showers to develop ahead of the broad low during the day on Wednesday as the low rides along the northward moving boundary. Low begins to approach the Carolina coast during the afternoon with rainfall increasing in coverage and intensity. As the low pushes off of the southeastern NC coastline Wednesday night, the system will merge with favorable jet dynamics and an associated upper low and quickly deepen. This could bring us some brief impacts from elevated winds as the system accelerates off to the northeast late Wednesday night. With the system trending further south in recent models runs, most of the area should see a better chance of locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening especially. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold advection on the NW side of the low will likely keep temperatures in the upper 40s or lower 50s for Thursday as showers end early Thursday morning. Cold advection continues on Friday as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure will move overhead or just to the east on Saturday. Temperatures should remain slightly below average for the early portion of next weekend as a result. The next system will begin to affect the area late next weekend with warm air and rain chances returning by Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ceilings will deteriorate to IFR later today as a warm front moves into the region. Winds will shift to the southeast this afternoon with the warm air advection. IFR ceilings are expected tonight, with pockets of MVFR. Any precipitation will move north of the region this evening. Extended Outlook...Low ceilings/visibility to continue into early Tuesday with a brief VFR break into Thursday evening. Low ceilings to return late Tuesday through early Thursday. Clearing and VFR likely Thursday into Saturday. Flight restrictions possibly return Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... Today through Tuesday... A warm front will advance over the waters today that will bring potentially dense sea fog with visibility around 2 NM or less at times. The front will also bring mainly southwest flow for the next 36 hours with speeds around 10 kts today increasing tonight through Tuesday between 15 and 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts beyond 15 NM. Seas 2 to 3 feet today from the south at 6 seconds increasing tonight through Tuesday between 3 to 5 feet from the south around 8 seconds with 6 footers possible out beyond 15 NM. Conditions may exist into Tuesday beyond 15 NM that may be hazardous to smaller watercraft and inexperienced mariners. Tuesday Night through Friday... Small Craft conditions should be coming to an end on Tuesday night as the front pushes southward into southern SC, bringing winds generally out of the W or NW around 10- 15 knots. On Wednesday, low pressure over the Gulf Coast will develop along the previous frontal boundary and track toward the southeastern NC coastline. Will see winds begin to slowly increase and back throughout the day, becoming easterly on Wednesday afternoon and NW on Wednesday evening as the center of the low stays just south of the area. Once the low moves off of the southeast NC coastline Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the system will merge with an upper low and begin to deepen quickly. Winds become NW on the lee side of the low, increasing to 25-30 knots. Wind profiles show deep mixing and a uniform profile in the boundary layer indicating good potential for mixing. Current gusts are forecast 30- 35 knots, and the area could see widespread Gale conditions on Thursday afternoon. Seas increase to near 5-7 feet, remaining 4-6 feet through Thursday and Thursday night. Conditions slowly improve as the low moves off to the NE Thursday night, but Small Craft conditions may continue through early Friday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MCK SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM...21 AVIATION...43 MARINE...MCK/21