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000
ABNT20 KNHC 231742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Epsilon, located over the west-central Atlantic a couple of hundred
miles northeast of Bermuda.

Satellite images and radar data indicate that the broad area of low
pressure located just west of Grand Cayman Island is gradually
becoming better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression will likely form
during the next day or two while the low drifts toward the
northwest. The system could move near western Cuba by Sunday and
move slowly across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early next
week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall will be possible over
portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, southern Florida,
the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 23
 the center of Epsilon was located near 35.5, -61.7
 with movement N at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 968 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 20

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 232050
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
 
...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very 
fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next 
week.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day
or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday.  Epsilon could
lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin
 

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 20

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 232050
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  61.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT.......150NE  70SE  50SW 150NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 120SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N  61.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N  61.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N  61.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 260SE 160SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N  59.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  60SE  50SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 130SE 120SW  70NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.9N  53.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 160SE 120SW  20NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.6N  45.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW  30NW.
34 KT...240NE 370SE 330SW 260NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...270NE 410SE 420SW 400NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N  24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...260NE 410SE 540SW 540NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N  61.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
 
 

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 20

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 232051
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
 
The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and 
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the 
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The 
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, 
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has 
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by 
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster 
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, 
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward 
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to 
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow 
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough 
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the 
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of 
the forecast period.  No significant changes were made to the track 
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days 
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core 
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest 
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over 
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary 
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official 
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. 
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt 
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it 
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early 
Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 35.5N  61.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 37.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 38.9N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 41.9N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 45.6N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  26/1800Z 54.0N  24.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake
 

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 232050
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
BERMUDA        34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Epsilon Graphics


Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 20:52:43 GMT

Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 21:24:53 GMT