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000
ABNT20 KNHC 021731
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical Storm Cristobal, located over the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Carbin

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
 As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 2
 the center of Cristobal was located near 19.2, -92.8
 with movement SW at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 4A

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021749 CCA
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
 
Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm 
 
...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
tonight through Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche.  The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches,
with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific
coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible.  Rainfall in all of these
areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 021500
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  92.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  92.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  92.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  92.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 4

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 021504
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently 
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very 
close to tropical storm strength.  Based on flight-level and 
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at 
30 kt for now.  Since the cyclone is over very warm waters with 
fairly low vertical shear, intensification to a tropical storm 
should occur today.  The official intensity forecast is close to the 
model consensus.  The intensity forecast later in the period is 
dependent on how much shear the system will encounter over the 
northern Gulf of Mexico and this is somewhat uncertain.  For now, 
the intensity forecast will remain conservative.
 
The initial motion estimate is slowly westward, or 270/3 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents over the 
Bay of Campeche for the next couple of days, with the system moving 
slowly within a broader gyre over eastern Mexico.  Global models 
show the cyclone being trapped between two mid-level anticyclones 
until later in the week, when some increase in southerly flow should 
begin to carry the system toward the northern Gulf of Mexico 
coastline.  The official track forecast closely follows the 
dynamical model consensus.
 
At this time, both the track and intensity forecasts are of low 
confidence.  However, for the next couple of days, the main threat 
from this slow-moving cyclone is from widespread heavy rains over 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America.


Key Messages:
 
1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and 
El Salvador, and the depression is expected to bring
additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, 
Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather 
office for more information.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico 
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.
 
3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf 
of Mexico by this weekend.  However, it is too soon to specify the 
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf 
Coast.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this 
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in 
place as we begin the season.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.5N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 19.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 18.8N  92.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 18.8N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 18.9N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 19.8N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 26.0N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020


000
FONT13 KNHC 021500
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
1500 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  1   9(10)   6(16)   4(20)   2(22)   1(23)   X(23)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)
 
BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics


Tropical Storm Cristobal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 17:49:35 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristobal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 15:24:44 GMT