Tropical Cyclone Activity

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Current Tropical Discussion For Pacific Basin

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091502
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM PDT Sun May 9 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Andres located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May
15, 2021. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Andres are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Andres (EP1/EP012021)

...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun May 9
 the center of Andres was located near 14.0, -108.5
 with movement NW at 6 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Andres Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021  

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 092034
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Andres Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021
 
...ANDRES SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 108.5W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Andres is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday followed by a turn
toward the west by late Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming
a remnant low on Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021  
ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021
0300 UTC MON MAY 10 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 108.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 109.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N 109.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.8N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 111.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 109.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Andres Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021  

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092035
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021
 
The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at
this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of
banding features.  However the cyclone is producing some very cold
cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation.  A partial
scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it
is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection
to the east of the center.  The current intensity estimate remains
at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB.  The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with
increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to
lower-troposphere.  Therefore, a weakening trend should begin
tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model
guidance.
 
The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat
elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the
previously estimated track.  Andres should move along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or
so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level
steering flow.  The official track forecast is south of much of the
model guidance on account of the more southward center location.
This is not far from the latest GFS model solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Tropical Storm Andres Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021


827 
FOPZ11 KNHC 092034
PWSEP1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012021               
2100 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  X  15(15)   8(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
15N 110W       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Andres Graphics


Tropical Storm Andres 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 20:36:17 GMT

Tropical Storm Andres 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 21:22:45 GMT